Data Visual created via Flourish by Skye Collacott Williamson.

The Monsequence of another Lando bottled pole: Can Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Championship?

Charles Leclerc, mathematically, is still in the hunt for the 2024 Drivers’ Championship.

Does the Ferrari driver have what it takes to stop the three-time consequential Champion?

With three race wins to his name this year, he’s overtaken Lando Norris, both in race victories for the season and total career wins. Yet, as impressive as that sounds, closing the gap to Max Verstappen remains daunting.

Charles Leclerc, Prince of Ferrari, is better known as the unluckiest man in Formula One. Ferrari’s infamous inconsistency plagues both Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc.

Time and again, strategic blunders and pitstop errors have robbed him of victories, and nowhere is that more evident than his home race in Monaco.

Twice, Leclerc has qualified on pole in the streets where he grew up, only for Ferrari to squander his chance at victory with poor decisions.

Everything changed in this 2024 season with a historical moment.

The Monsequence: A Historic Home Win

After 70 years of waiting, Ferrari finally delivered in Monaco.

Charles Leclerc became the first Monegasque driver to win on home soil in Formula One history. The long-awaited victory broke a curse and reignited Leclerc’s championship hopes.

It was a symbolic win, not just for Leclerc but also for Ferrari, signalling that they might finally have the package to challenge Red Bull.

This week, Charles Leclerc further demonstrated his drive. He may not have the fastest car, but he is the fastest driver.

Leclerc overtook three cars in Lap 1 of the recent United States Grand Prix in Austin, despite Lando Norris on pole.

While the Mclaren has consistently shown speed, Lando has developed a reputation for faltering under pressure, as we saw earlier this season in Monza. In that race, Norris lost ground to Leclerc and his McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri.

Leclerc’s path to the title is mathematically possible with six races remaining, but it’s an uphill battle.

The Path to Victory: What Needs to Happen

For Leclerc to win the championship, the following scenario must unfold:

• Leclerc must finish 1st in all six remaining races.
• Norris must finish 4th or lower in those races.
• Verstappen must finish 5th or lower in the same span.

This is without consideration of DNFs, penalties, or fastest lap points, yet this is a big speculation. Verstappen has proven dominant despite Red Bull letting him down, and he won a sprint race in the Austin GP.

Leclerc, on the other hand, needs everything to go right—Ferrari strategies, including pitstop decisions and race tactics, reliability, and race execution all need to align perfectly.

The Reality: A Battle for Second

While a championship win remains improbable, Leclerc could still secure second place in the standings. His recent form suggests that he can surpass Norris in the final races, provided Ferrari doesn’t falter. Should Norris continue to stumble from the pole and Verstappen remain in a comfortable lead, the fight for runner-up could be where Leclerc shines.

Looking Ahead: 2025 and Beyond

Even if 2024 doesn’t end with a title, there is a glimmer of hope for the future. Speculations are rife about a potential Ferrari superteam in 2025, with the legendary seven-time World Champion Lewis Hamilton possibly teaming up with Leclerc.

If this materializes, Leclerc would not only benefit from Hamilton’s mentorship but could also find himself in a more competitive car, capable of consistently challenging for wins.

Maybe all the stars will align in 2025, Leclerc’s fortunes will change, and he will finally have the machinery and team dynamics to mount a serious challenge for the title.

And maybe Lando Norris will come third in the Max Verstappen v Lando Norris championship battle.